Expected Value Calculator

About this calculator

Expected value combines every possible outcome of a wager weighted by its probability, computed here as EV = P(win) × amount won − P(lose) × amount lost; a positive EV means the bet is profitable on average over many repetitions, while a negative EV means it loses money in the long run even if any single try can still win.

Poker players and sports bettors use expected value to separate genuinely favorable bets from lucky short-term wins, since a single win says nothing about whether a bet was mathematically sound. Actuaries and insurers use the same principle in reverse to price policies profitably, and decision theorists apply it more broadly to any choice involving uncertain payoffs, from business investments to everyday risk decisions.